The 2024 general elections in Pakistan have exposed the fragility of the country’s democracy and the dubious role of the Army in shaping the political landscape. The elections, which were marred by allegations of pre-poll rigging, manipulation, and violence, have resulted in a hung parliament, with no single party or alliance securing a clear majority. The Army, which has been accused of engineering the electoral outcome in favour of its preferred candidate, Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), has faced a backlash from the public and the opposition parties, who have rejected the results and demanded a re-election.
The Army’s interference in the elections was evident from the outset, as it used various tactics to undermine the popularity and credibility of the incumbent Prime Minister, Imran Khan, and his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). Khan, who came to power in 2018 with a promise of reform and accountability, had fallen out with the Army over several issues, such as his criticism of the Army’s role in foreign policy, his stance on the Kashmir dispute, his outreach to India, his opposition to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and his support for the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM), a civil rights movement that has challenged the Army’s human rights violations in the tribal areas. The Army, which has wielded enormous influence over Pakistan’s politics and security for decades, saw Khan as a threat to its interests and legitimacy, and decided to oust him from power.
The Army’s campaign against Khan and the PTI involved a series of coercive and manipulative measures, such as filing corruption and sedition cases against Khan and his allies, arresting and harassing PTI activists and supporters, pressuring the media and the judiciary to toe the Army’s line, censoring and blocking Khan’s speeches and rallies, stripping the PTI of its electoral symbol and forcing its candidates to contest as independents, and creating and backing proxy parties and candidates to divide the anti-Army vote. The Army also used its intelligence agencies and paramilitary forces to intimidate and influence the voters, the polling staff, and the election observers on the polling day, and to tamper with the ballot papers, the electronic voting machines, and the transmission of results.
The Army’s favoured candidate, Nawaz Sharif, who had returned from exile in London after being granted bail by the Supreme Court on medical grounds, was projected as the saviour of Pakistan’s democracy and economy. Sharif, who had served as the Prime Minister three times before, had also been at loggerheads with the Army in the past, but had reconciled with the Army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, after the latter brokered a deal between Sharif and the Saudi Arabian government, which had facilitated Sharif’s departure from Pakistan in 2019. Sharif, who had been convicted and sentenced to prison on corruption charges by an accountability court in 2018, had denounced the verdict as a political vendetta by Khan and the Army, and had vowed to restore the civilian supremacy and the rule of law in the country. Sharif’s party, the PML-N, had also joined hands with other opposition parties, such as the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, and the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F), led by Maulana Fazlur Rehman, a religious leader and a staunch critic of Khan and the Army, to form the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), a coalition that had launched a nationwide protest movement against the PTI government and the Army in 2020.
However, the Army’s plan to install Sharif as the Prime Minister backfired, as the election results showed that the PTI-backed independent candidates had emerged as the single largest bloc in the parliament, followed by the PML-N and the PPP. The PTI-backed candidates, who had defied the Army’s pressure and had campaigned on the basis of Khan’s popularity and performance, had managed to win the support of a large section of the electorate, especially the youth, the urban middle class, and the ethnic minorities, who had appreciated Khan’s efforts to curb corruption, improve governance, strengthen the institutions, and address the socio-economic challenges facing the country. The PML-N and the PPP, on the other hand, had failed to expand their base beyond their traditional strongholds in Punjab and Sindh provinces, respectively, and had lost ground to the PTI-backed candidates and the regional parties in the other provinces, such as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, and Gilgit-Baltistan. The PDM, which had claimed to be the voice of the people and the defender of democracy, had also lost its credibility and unity, as some of its constituent parties, such as the MQM-P, the PML-Q, the IPP, and the BAP, had deserted the coalition and had joined the PML-N-led government formation process.
The election results have not only exposed the Army’s miscalculation and manipulation, but have also challenged its authority and reputation. The Army, which has often justified its intervention in politics as a necessity to protect the national interest and security, has been accused of subverting the will of the people and undermining the sovereignty and stability of the country. The Army, which has often portrayed itself as the guardian of the nation and the arbiter of the national narrative, has been confronted by the dissent and diversity of the public opinion and the political discourse. The Army, which has often claimed to be the most professional and disciplined institution in the country, has been questioned for its competence and accountability. The Army, which has often enjoyed the respect and support of the masses, has been met with resentment and resistance from the civil society and the media.
The 2024 Pakistan elections have thus marked a turning point in the country’s history, as they have revealed the cracks and contradictions in the Army’s hegemony and the people’s aspirations. The elections have also opened up new possibilities and challenges for the future of Pakistan’s democracy and development, as they have created a space for dialogue and debate among the diverse and divergent political actors and stakeholders. The elections have also posed a test for the legitimacy and viability of the PML-N-led coalition government, which will have to deal with the complex and contentious issues of governance, economy, security, and foreign policy, while balancing the interests and expectations of its allies and adversaries, both domestic and international. The elections have also raised the hopes and demands of the PTI-backed independent candidates and their supporters, who will have to decide whether to join the government or the opposition, and whether to continue or abandon their allegiance to Khan and his vision. The elections have also presented an opportunity and a challenge for the Army, which will have to rethink and redefine its role and relationship with the civilian government and the society, and whether to respect or resist the verdict of the people.
, has faced a backlash from the public and the opposition parties, who have rejected the results and demanded a re-election.){kind=link}