China has revived its mission, which failed spectacularly earlier, to reunite Nepal’s major and warring communist parties.
Delegations of Chinese politicians have been making frequent visits to Nepal to iron out differences between the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), or the CPN(UML) and Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre), or the CPN(MC).
In 2023, more than three dozen Chinese delegations visited Nepal and in the first six weeks of this year, five Chinese delegations landed in Kathmandu.
The Chinese are worried that their proxy in Nepal — CPN(UML) chair Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli — has been out of power in the country and are desperate to reinstate him as the prime minister of the Himalayan nation.
Oli extended many favourable deals to China and it was during his rule that China could exponentially expand its influence in the Himalayan nation. Oli adopted a strident anti-India and anti-US stance and positioned himself as Beijing’s puppet.
But under Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Nepal has done a course correction and moved close to India and also to the US. Dahal has been attempting to maintain equidistance from China, India and the US. That has made Beijing, which wants Nepal to be its proxy-state, very unhappy.
The CPN(UML) is close to Beijing and lost power in the 2022 Parliament elections. Since then, China has been trying its level best to facilitate Oli’s return to power through the back door, if necessary.
The easiest way for the CPN(UML) to return to power is to break the ruling alliance between the centrist Nepali Congress (NC) and the CPN(MC) in which a breakaway faction of the UML — the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist) led by Madhav Kumar Nepal — is also a partner.
NC leader Minendra Rijal told that visiting Chinese leaders have been urging both Oli and CPN(MC) chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal to sink their differences and reunite.
The Chinese had brokered an electoral alliance between CPN(UML) and CPN(MC) before the 2017 parliamentary elections. The alliance swept the polls and came to power
Beijing then facilitated a merger of the two communist parties; a new party — the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) — was formed.
But differences soon cropped up between Oli and Dahal and the two turned bitter foes. The NCP broke and the two leaders revived their old parties before parting ways.
China had, at that time, tried its best to avoid the breakup and dissolution of the NCP. It had made blatant attempts to bring about a reconciliation between Oli and Dahal.
But China’s overt effort to interfere in Nepal’s internal affairs in order to ensure continuance of its proxy (Oli) in power fell flat on its face.
The Nepali Congress emerged as the largest party in the 2022 Parliament elections and formed the government in alliance with the CPN(MC) and CPN(US).
The three parties have a written understanding on sharing the post of the prime minister — Dahal will occupy the post for the first two years, followed by CPN(US) chair Madhav Kumar Nepal for a year and then NC president Sher Bahadur Deuba for the remaining two years.
Dahal’s two-year term as PM will end in December this year. He was sworn in as the PM in December 2022.
Oli is hell-bent on preventing Madhav Kumar Nepal from becoming the prime minister. “Oli hasn’t forgiven Nepal for breaking the party (CPN-UML) and forming another party after a covert understanding with his (Oli’s) bete noire Dahal,” CPN(US) leader Jagannath Khatiwada.
China is playing a diabolic double-game in Nepal. It has encouraged Oli to reach out to NC and offer a deal to the latter to snap ties with CPN(MC).
At the same time, Beijing is also helping the Oli’s party navigate a deal with the CPN(MC). The immediate objective of these twin gameplans is the same: to break the ruling alliance and reinstate Oli to power.
CPN(UML) leader and former foreign minister Pradeep Gyawali confirmed this. “Yes, we are in talks with both the CPN(MC) and Nepali Congress (NC), but we would prefer to stitch an alliance with the NC,” he said.
China reckons that since the immediate objective is to break the ruling alliance, the CPN(UML) can strike a deal with either the CPN(MC) or the NC.
“The ruling alliance is beset by contradictions and has failed to deliver. Several top leaders of the Congress are unhappy with the alliance (with CPN-MC) and if the Congress snaps ties with the Maoists, a Congress-UML government can be formed and will offer stable and good governance,” said Gyawali.
Simultaneously, some other leaders of the CPN(UML) who have good ties with Dahal are speaking to him (Dahal) and other leaders of CPN(MC).
Beijing’s desperation is evident from the fact that it wants the CPN(UML) to agree to offer the PM’s post to Dahal, or to NC chair Sher Bahadur Deuba.
“China wants UML to agree to Dahal continuing as the PM if he breaks away from his alliance with the NC. And if the NC agrees to snap ties with Dahal, then it wants UML to agree to NC’s terms which will include making Deuba the PM. Because what matters at the end of the day is putting Oli back in power. Even if Oli is not the PM in a new dispensation, the UML will be part of the ruling alliance and Oli will wield a lot of influence. That means Beijing will be able to retrieve lost ground in Nepal,” explained Bimal Shrestha, a professor of political science at Nepal’s premier Tribhuvan University.
But the ultimate objective is to reunite the two communist parties. A unified communist party, in Beijing’s calculation, will become the most powerful political force in the country and will be a natural ally of China.
With this objective in mind, China has over the last few years been nurturing close ties with second-rung and young functionaries of the two communist parties. “The idea to create very strong pro-China constituencies in both the parties and this will yield long-term gains for Beijing,” said Shrestha.
India, and the US, are watching developments in Nepal very closely. Both the countries have not only stepped up their engagements and involvement in Nepal, but have also been quietly countering China’s moves.
Apart from aid and involvement in development projects in Nepal, India and the US have been strengthening their outreach to Nepal’s politicians and civil society.
As a result, Kathmandu has steered clear of China’s embrace. This is evident from the failure of even a single project under Chinese President’s pet Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) taking off in Nepal.
Also, a growing number of leaders within the CPN(UML) are voicing opposition to their party being seen as and acting like Beijing’s proxy. “The constituency within the UML that is opposed to Nepal becoming a satellite state of China is growing stronger. This constituency wants Nepal to chart an independent course and maintain good ties with all major powers,” said Shrestha.
Nepal has, thus, emerged as a new ground for power plays between major powers. A growing number of Nepal’s leaders cutting across party lines view this as a positive development that Nepal has to leverage to get the best deals for the country without allowing itself to become a proxy for any power.
Which is exactly what New Delhi wants as well. That is why a number of leaders of both the communist parties and the Nepali Congress are finding their thought processes aligned with that of New Delhi.
